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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 3 at the 18

Tennessee Titans 3 – New Orleans Saints 6

What Actually Happened

(7:47) 14-R.Bullock 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +2.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +5.06 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 18, worth -0.77 EP
KICK +1.59 EP
What Happened
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 28, worth -1.30 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP