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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 7 at the 28

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(14:18) 1-G.Joseph 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +0.69 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.26 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 28, worth -1.38 EP
KICK +1.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 38, worth -2.30 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model