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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 6

Los Angeles Chargers 17 – Minnesota Vikings 27

What Actually Happened

(4:40) 6-D.Hopkins 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-M.Overton, Holder-1-T.Long.

The Three Options

GO +3.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.77 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 6, worth -0.26 EP
KICK +1.95 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -0.74 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.10 EP