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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 1

Minnesota Vikings 13 – Los Angeles Chargers 17

What Actually Happened

(2:39) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 83-T.Conklin for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN [57-A.Ogbongbemiga]. LAC-32-A.Gilman was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +3.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.76 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 1, worth +0.19 EP
KICK +1.79 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.90 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model