Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 7 at the 67

Minnesota Vikings 13 – Los Angeles Chargers 17

What Actually Happened

(9:25) 3-J.Berry punts 55 yards to LAC 12, Center-42-A.DePaola. 7-A.Roberts to LAC 25 for 13 yards (30-C.Ham; 45-T.Dye). PENALTY on LAC-38-K.Thomas, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced at LAC 12.

The Three Options

GO -1.43 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.96 EP
58% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 67, worth -3.85 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model