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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 6 at the 46

Los Angeles Chargers 10 – Minnesota Vikings 13

What Actually Happened

(:32) 1-T.Long punts 35 yards to MIN 11, Center-54-M.Overton, downed by LAC-57-A.Ogbongbemiga.

The Three Options

GO +0.06 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +1.91 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 46, worth -1.25 EP
KICK +0.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.65 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -1.44 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 13, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.42 EP