Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 13 at the 78

Minnesota Vikings 13 – Los Angeles Chargers 10

(1:11) 3-J.Berry punts 42 yards to LAC 36, Center-42-A.DePaola. 7-A.Roberts to 50 for 14 yards (45-T.Dye, 42-A.DePaola).

The Three Options

GO -2.11 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.18 EP
67% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 78, worth -3.75 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model