Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 8 at the 48

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

(11:47) 3-J.Berry punts 40 yards to LAC 8, Center-42-A.DePaola. 7-A.Roberts to LAC 17 for 9 yards (85-D.Chisena).

The Three Options

GO -0.80 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.16 EP
63% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 48, worth -3.13 EP

KICK -1.36 EP

39% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.55 EP
61% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.20 EP

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model