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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 11 at the 11

Minnesota Vikings 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 3

What Actually Happened

(6:42) 1-G.Joseph 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +1.17 EP
  • 28% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.49 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 11, worth -0.52 EP
KICK +1.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.55 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 22, worth -1.25 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model