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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 20 at the 20

Las Vegas Raiders 14 – Kansas City Chiefs 41

What Actually Happened

(1:57) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete deep right to 13-H.Renfrow (21-M.Hughes).

The Three Options

GO +0.74 EP
What Happened
  • 22% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.03 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 20, worth -0.77 EP
KICK +1.83 EP
Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30, worth -1.08 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.08 EP