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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 2 at the 55

Las Vegas Raiders 14 – Kansas City Chiefs 41

What Actually Happened

(6:16) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 83-D.Waller to LV 47 for 2 yards (26-C.Lammons; 23-A.Watts).

The Three Options

GO +0.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.18 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 55, worth -2.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.66 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 16, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model