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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 5 at the 51

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(8:43) 6-A.Cole punts 40 yards to KC 11, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 21-M.Hughes.

The Three Options

GO +0.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.25 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 51, worth -2.50 EP
KICK -0.93 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 14, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model