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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 1

Kansas City Chiefs 17 – Las Vegas Raiders 14

What Actually Happened

(7:14) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 83-N.Gray for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.82 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 1, worth +0.35 EP
KICK +1.85 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.83 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model