Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 16 at the 69

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

What Actually Happened

(6:11) 6-A.Cole punts 42 yards to KC 27, Center-47-T.Sieg, downed by LV-5-D.Deablo. PENALTY on LV-16-D.Stoner, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at KC 27.

The Three Options

GO -1.81 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.65 EP
70% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 69, worth -3.73 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model