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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 11 at the 22

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(8:29) 7-H.Butker 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +0.58 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.92 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 22, worth -1.25 EP
KICK +1.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 32, worth -1.83 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model