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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 58

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(9:58) 12-C.McCoy up the middle to ARI 41 for -1 yards (4-J.Carter; 97-Y.Gross-Matos).

The Three Options

GO +1.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.56 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 58, worth -2.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model