Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 4 at the 58

Carolina Panthers 34 – Arizona Cardinals 10

(:34) 10-L.Edwards punts 54 yards to ARI 4, Center-44-J.Jansen. 83-G.Dortch to ARI 11 for 7 yards (4-J.Carter; 16-B.Zylstra).

The Three Options

GO -0.33 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +0.75 EP
55% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 58, worth -1.22 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model