Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 19 at the 84

Arizona Cardinals 10 – Carolina Panthers 34

What Actually Happened

(2:20) 14-A.Lee punts 50 yards to CAR 34, Center-43-B.Brinkley. 13-A.Erickson ran ob at 50 for 16 yards (81-D.Daniels). PENALTY on CAR-28-K.Taylor, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 46.

The Three Options

GO -2.64 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.25 EP
72% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 84, worth -4.18 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model