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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 9 at the 9

Carolina Panthers 31 – Arizona Cardinals 10

What Actually Happened

(3:30) 5-Z.Gonzalez 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO +1.32 EP
  • 27% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.00 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 9, worth -0.39 EP
KICK +1.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.71 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model