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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 31

Arizona Cardinals 3 – Carolina Panthers 31

What Actually Happened

(:48) 66-J.Miles reported in as eligible. 15-C.Streveler FUMBLES (Aborted) at CAR 31, recovered by ARI-26-E.Benjamin at CAR 35.

The Three Options

GO +2.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.94 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 31, worth -1.21 EP
KICK +1.29 EP
  • 78% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 41, worth -1.90 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model