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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 6 at the 29

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Carolina Panthers 23

What Actually Happened

(10:07) 5-M.Prater 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-B.Brinkley, Holder-14-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +1.09 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.60 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.20 EP
KICK +1.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 39, worth -1.97 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model