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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 5 at the 63

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Carolina Panthers 20

What Actually Happened

(3:22) 14-A.Lee punts 47 yards to CAR 16, Center-43-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 13-A.Erickson.

The Three Options

GO -0.85 EP
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.02 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 63, worth -3.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 21, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model