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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 19 at the 49

Buffalo Bills 10 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(:51) 3-M.Haack punts 41 yards to NYJ 8, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 10-B.Berrios to NYJ 16 for 8 yards (25-T.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -1.21 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.75 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.99 EP
KICK -1.46 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -3.00 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 14, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model