Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 15 at the 80

New York Jets 0 – Buffalo Bills 10

(3:38) 7-B.Mann punts 46 yards to BUF 34, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 19-I.McKenzie to NYJ 40 for 26 yards (85-T.Wesco).

The Three Options

GO -2.72 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.98 EP
74% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 80, worth -4.40 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model