Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 17 at the 43

New York Jets 10 – Buffalo Bills 38

(8:17) (Shotgun) 5-M.White pass incomplete deep left to 82-J.Crowder (21-J.Poyer).

The Three Options

GO -0.43 EP

What Happened

21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.38 EP
79% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 43, worth -1.73 EP

KICK -0.24 EP

48% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
52% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.32 EP

Chose GO ✓ matched the model