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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 3 at the 28

New York Jets 3 – Buffalo Bills 38

What Actually Happened

(14:26) (Shotgun) 5-M.White pass short middle to 82-J.Crowder to BUF 20 for 8 yards (24-T.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO +1.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.37 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 28, worth -0.90 EP
KICK +1.45 EP
  • 82% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.19 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 38, worth -1.88 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model