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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 7 at the 30

New York Jets 0 – Buffalo Bills 10

What Actually Happened

(1:57) 6-M.Ammendola 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +0.64 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.46 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30, worth -1.12 EP
KICK +1.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 40, worth -1.68 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model