Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 14 at the 60

Buffalo Bills 10 – New York Jets 0

(5:32) 3-M.Haack punts 37 yards to NYJ 23, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO -1.49 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.89 EP
68% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 60, worth -3.53 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model