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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 6 at the 54

Miami Dolphins 0 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(13:25) 5-M.Palardy punts 38 yards to BAL 16, Center-44-B.Ferguson, downed by MIA-9-N.Igbinoghene.

The Three Options

GO -0.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +3.03 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 54, worth -2.76 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 16, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model