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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 14 at the 81

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 4-S.Koch punts 45 yards to MIA 36, Center-46-N.Moore. 17-J.Waddle ran ob at MIA 42 for 6 yards (54-T.Bowser).

The Three Options

GO -2.84 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.23 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 81, worth -4.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -2.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 38, worth -2.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model