Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 17 at the 63

Miami Dolphins 0 – Baltimore Ravens 3

(7:14) 5-M.Palardy punts 38 yards to BAL 25, Center-44-B.Ferguson, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.67 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.20 EP
74% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 63, worth -3.37 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model