Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 16 at the 73

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Miami Dolphins 6

(1:48) 4-S.Koch punts 41 yards to MIA 32, Center-46-N.Moore. 8-J.Holland to MIA 36 for 4 yards (41-A.Levine).

The Three Options

GO -2.34 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.06 EP
69% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 73, worth -4.28 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model