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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 3 at the 74

Miami Dolphins 6 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(4:00) 5-M.Palardy punts 52 yards to BAL 22, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.

The Three Options

GO -1.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.45 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 74, worth -4.30 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.30 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 32, worth -1.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model