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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 9 at the 28

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(9:53) 9-J.Tucker 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +0.62 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.63 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 28, worth -1.45 EP
KICK +0.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 38, worth -2.41 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model