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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 14 at the 86

Miami Dolphins 6 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(9:36) 5-M.Palardy punts 40 yards to BAL 46, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.

The Three Options

GO -3.07 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.23 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 86, worth -5.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -2.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 44, worth -2.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model