4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 15 at the 44

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Miami Dolphins 6

What Actually Happened

(11:56) 4-S.Koch punts 39 yards to MIA 5, Center-46-N.Moore, downed by BAL-16-T.Wallace.

The Three Options

GO -0.61 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.08 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 44, worth -2.46 EP
KICK -0.78 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.90 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 12, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model