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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 7 at the 64

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Miami Dolphins 3

What Actually Happened

(4:03) 4-S.Koch punts 53 yards to MIA 11, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 8-J.Holland.

The Three Options

GO -1.30 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.85 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 64, worth -3.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 22, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model