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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 13 at the 13

Miami Dolphins 0 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(6:22) 7-J.Sanders 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +1.18 EP
  • 24% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.89 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 13, worth -0.33 EP
KICK +1.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 23, worth -0.91 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model