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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 4 at the 78

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(11:39) 4-S.Koch punts 37 yards to MIA 41, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 8-J.Holland.

The Three Options

GO -1.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.00 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 78, worth -4.56 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -2.17 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 35, worth -2.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP