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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 5 at the 33

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Atlanta Falcons 3

What Actually Happened

(:19) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 88-C.Lamb to ATL 12 for 21 yards (24-A.Terrell).

The Three Options

GO +1.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.37 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 33, worth -1.23 EP
KICK +1.23 EP
  • 75% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 43, worth -1.93 EP
PUNT +0.19 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model