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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 7 at the 17

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(8:27) 7-Y.Koo 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-12-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.10 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.16 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 17, worth -1.00 EP
KICK +1.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 27, worth -1.46 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model