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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 12 at the 82

Dallas Cowboys 43 – Atlanta Falcons 3

What Actually Happened

(7:27) 5-B.Anger punts 42 yards to ATL 40, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 35-A.Williams to ATL 46 for 6 yards (85-N.Brown; 57-L.Gifford).

The Three Options

GO -2.54 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.31 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 82, worth -4.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -2.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 40, worth -2.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model