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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 6 at the 95

Dallas Cowboys 36 – Atlanta Falcons 3

What Actually Happened

(12:39) 5-B.Anger punts 60 yards to ATL 35, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 35-A.Williams to ATL 39 for 4 yards (29-C.Goodwin). PENALTY on ATL-15-F.Franks, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 35.

The Three Options

GO -2.69 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 89, worth +0.32 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 95, worth -5.65 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (112 yards).

PUNT -2.98 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 53, worth -2.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model