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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 18 at the 83

Atlanta Falcons 3 – Dallas Cowboys 28

What Actually Happened

(:44) 12-D.Colquitt punt is BLOCKED by 92-D.Armstrong, Center-47-J.Harris, RECOVERED by DAL-25-N.Wright at ATL -1. TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -3.12 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.03 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 83, worth -4.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -1.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 41, worth -1.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model