Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 20 at the 85

Atlanta Falcons 3 – Dallas Cowboys 21

(6:01) 12-D.Colquitt punts 60 yards to DAL 25, Center-47-J.Harris. 88-C.Lamb to DAL 41 for 16 yards (47-J.Harris).

The Three Options

GO -3.27 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.42 EP
73% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 85, worth -4.97 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model