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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 3 at the 25

Dallas Cowboys 14 – Atlanta Falcons 3

What Actually Happened

(8:43) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 13-M.Gallup pushed ob at ATL 2 for 23 yards (22-F.Moreau).

The Three Options

GO +1.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.55 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25, worth -1.13 EP
KICK +1.40 EP
  • 87% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 35, worth -1.73 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model