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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 5 at the 70

Atlanta Falcons 3 – Dallas Cowboys 14

What Actually Happened

(12:09) 12-D.Colquitt punts 41 yards to DAL 29, Center-47-J.Harris. 88-C.Lamb to DAL 32 for 3 yards (17-O.Zaccheaus).

The Three Options

GO -1.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.49 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 70, worth -4.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.50 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 28, worth -1.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model