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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 3 at the 21

Indianapolis Colts 42 – New York Jets 23

What Actually Happened

(8:06) 6-M.Badgley 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +1.98 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.75 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -0.92 EP
KICK +1.55 EP
What Happened
  • 91% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 31, worth -1.42 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP