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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 6 at the 63

New York Jets 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(11:55) 4-T.Morstead punts 51 yards to IND 12, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-42-T.Hennessy.

The Three Options

GO -1.62 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.92 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 63, worth -3.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -1.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 21, worth -1.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model