Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 19 at the 89

Carolina Panthers 0 – New England Patriots 0

(2:12) 10-L.Edwards punts 59 yards to NE 30, Center-44-J.Jansen. 80-G.Olszewski to NE 45 for 15 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at NE 47.

The Three Options

GO -3.19 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.68 EP
74% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 89, worth -4.95 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model